Spatial patterns of Plasmodium vivax transmission explored by multivariate auto-regressive state-space modelling - A case study in Baoshan Prefecture in southern China

  • Jinxin Zheng National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Health Commission, Shanghai, China; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China; Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai, China. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1476-1903
  • Benyun Shi School of Computer Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2734-3794
  • Shang Xia National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Health Commission, Shanghai, China; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China; Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai, China.
  • Guojing Yang Hainan Medical University, Laboratory of Tropical Environment and Health, Haikou, Hainan, China; Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5102-7869
  • Xiao-Nong Zhou | zhouxn1@chinacdc.cn National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Health Commission, Shanghai, China; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, Ministry of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China; Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai, China. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1417-8427

Abstract

The transition from the control phase to elimination of malaria in China through the national malaria elimination programme has focussed attention on the need for improvement of the surveillance- response systems. It is now understood that routine passive surveillance is inadequate in the parasite elimination phase that requires supplementation by active surveillance in foci where cluster cases have occurred. This study aims to explore the spatial clusters and temporal trends of malaria cases by the multivariate auto-regressive state-space model (MARSS) along the border to Myanmar in southern China. Data for indigenous cases spanning the period from 2007 to 2010 were extracted from the China’s Infectious Diseases Information Reporting Management System (IDIRMS). The best MARSS model indicated that malaria transmission in the study area during 36 months could be grouped into three clusters. The estimation of malaria transmission patterns showed a downward trend across all clusters. The proposed methodology used in this study offers a simple and rapid, yet effective way to categorize patterns of foci which provide assistance for active monitoring of malaria in the elimination phase.

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Published
2021-03-12
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Original Articles
Keywords:
Malaria, Plasmodium vivax, indigenous case, state space model, foci, cluster, China.
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How to Cite
Zheng, J., Shi, B., Xia, S., Yang, G., & Zhou, X.-N. (2021). Spatial patterns of <em>Plasmodium vivax</em&gt; transmission explored by multivariate auto-regressive state-space modelling - A case study in Baoshan Prefecture in southern China. Geospatial Health, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2021.879