Spatiotemporal analysis of rabies in cattle in central Mexico

  • Isabel Bárcenas-Reyes Faculty of Natural Sciences, Autonomous University of Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
  • Diana Paulina Nieves-Martínez Faculty of Natural Sciences, Autonomous University of Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
  • José Quintín Cuador-Gil Department of Physics, “Hermanos Saíz Montes de Oca” University of Pinar del Río, Pinar del Río, Cuba.
  • Elizabeth Loza-Rubio National Center for Disciplinary Research in Microbiology, National Institute of Forestry, Agricultural and Livestock Research (CENID-MICROBIOLOGY-INIFAP), Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Sara González-Ruíz Faculty of Natural Sciences, Autonomous University of Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
  • Germinal Jorge Cantó-Alarcón Faculty of Natural Sciences, Autonomous University of Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.
  • Feliciano Milian-Suazo | feliciano.milian@uaq.mx Faculty of Natural Sciences, Autonomous University of Querétaro, Querétaro, Mexico.

Abstract

Spatial epidemiology of bat-transmitted rabies in cattle has been limited to spatial distribution of cases, an approach that does not identify hidden patterns and the spread resulting in outbreaks in endemic and susceptible areas. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the three variables average annual maximum, annual minimum temperature and precipitation in the region on the one hand, and the spatial distribution of cases on the other, using geographic information systems and co-Kriging considering that these environmental variables condition the existence of the rabies vector Desmodus rotundus. A stationary behaviour between the primary and the secondary variables was verified by basic statistics and moving window statistics. The directions of greater and lesser spatial continuity were determined by experimental cross-semivariograms. It was found that the highest risk for bovine paralytic rabies occurs in areas known as La Huasteca Potosina and La Sierra Gorda that are characterized by a maximum temperature of 29.5 °C, a minimum temperature of 16.5 °C and precipitation of 1200 mm. A risk estimation map was obtained for the presence of rabies with a determination coefficient greater than 95%, and a correlation coefficient greater than 0.95. Our conclusion is that ordinary co- Kriging provides a better estimation of risk and spatial distribution of rabies than simple Kriging, making this the method recommended for risk estimation and regional distribution of rabies.

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Published
2019-11-06
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Original Articles
Keywords:
Rabies, Desmodus rotundus, Epidemiology, Cattle, Mexico
Statistics
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How to Cite
Bárcenas-Reyes, I., Nieves-Martínez, D. P., Cuador-Gil, J. Q., Loza-Rubio, E., González-Ruíz, S., Cantó-Alarcón, G. J., & Milian-Suazo, F. (2019). Spatiotemporal analysis of rabies in cattle in central Mexico. Geospatial Health, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2019.805