Predicting transmission of pulmonary tuberculosis in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia

  • Al Asyary | Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia.
  • Aries Prasetyo Study Program of Environmental Health, Health Polytechnic of Surabaya, Ministry of Health, Magetan, Indonesia.
  • Tris Eryando Department of Biostatistics and Population Studies, Faculty of Public Health, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia.
  • Yodi Mahendradhata Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.


This study aims to explain the current dispersion of tuberculosis (TB) and provide evidence that could help predicting its future transmission in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) Province, Java Island, Indonesia. One hundred thirty-two adult (>14 years old) individuals, with TB diagnosed by health professionals using the Directly Observed Treatment, Short Course strategy, were identified Their residential addresses and geographical patterns of movement were investigated by global positioning systems and descriptive spatial analysis using standard deviation ellipse analysis and kernel estimation. The dispersion of TB cases was studied by ellipse regression, which showed a pattern extending in a direction oriented from north-west to south-east centred on Kasihan District, Bantul Regency, DIY Province, located near Yogyakarta City. Levels of TB risk in the study area varied from non-existent to high as calculated by kernel estimation. We conclude that suburban communities, followed by densely populated residential areas, enabled by socio-economic factors, are more likely to see increased TB transmission in the future.


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Original Articles
Spatial analysis, Tuberculosis, Infectious disease, Epidemiology, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia
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How to Cite
Asyary, A., Prasetyo, A., Eryando, T., & Mahendradhata, Y. (2019). Predicting transmission of pulmonary tuberculosis in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia. Geospatial Health, 14(1).