Spatio-temporal analysis of fox rabies cases in Germany 2005-2006

  • Matthias Eckardt | Matthias.Eckardt@bfr.bund.de Unit Epidemiology, Statistics and Mathematical Modelling, Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Berlin; Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
  • Conrad Freuling Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Riems, Germany.
  • Thomas Müller Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Riems, Germany.
  • Thomas Selhorst Unit Epidemiology, Statistics and Mathematical Modelling, Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Berlin, Germany.

Abstract

Aiming to achieve new insights into rabies dynamics, this paper is the first to investigate fox rabies in Germany from a space-time pattern perspective. Based on a locally restricted dataset covering a fourteen month period, our findings indicate a strongly aggregated spatiotemporal point pattern resulting from an inhomogeneous stochastic process. In contrast to spatial or temporal approaches or cellular automata, our analysis focuses on the disease dynamics in time and space in a continuous time domain. Our findings confirm existing theories regarding fox rabies control highlighting the potential risk of urban areas and the need for effective rabies vaccination.

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Published
2015-06-03
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Original Articles
Keywords:
Spatio-temporal point data, Spatio-temporal disease pattern, Clustered process, Germany
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How to Cite
Eckardt, M., Freuling, C., Müller, T., & Selhorst, T. (2015). Spatio-temporal analysis of fox rabies cases in Germany 2005-2006. Geospatial Health, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2015.313