Application of Bayesian geostatistical modeling for the assessment of risk for child mortality during the 2008 earthquake in Wenchuan, People’s Republic of China

  • Yi Hu National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing; School of Earth and Mineral Resource, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, China.
  • Jin-Feng Wang | wangjf@igsrnr.ac.cn State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Xiao-Hong Li National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu; West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu; Department of Pediatrics, West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
  • Dan Ren National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
  • Dez-Hi Mu Department of Pediatrics, West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
  • Yan-Ping Wang National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
  • Chun-Mei Wen World Health Organization Representative China Office, Beijing, China.
  • Jun Zhu National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
  • Juan Liang National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.

Abstract

A Bayesian geostatistical model was used to identify factors related to topographical variation in the analysis of mortality risk for children less than 5 years of age in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in the People’s Republic of China. Epidemiological data from a standardized survey were available from 115 locations across the study area. Physical and demographic factors measured directly at the township level were examined with respect to risk. The geostatistical model explicitly accounted for spatial correlation present in child mortality by fitting a Gaussian linear model to the data. Results identified the role of several factors in explaining geographical heterogeneity in child mortality and show that it was significantly correlated with earthquake intensity, population density, migrant labour, and the percentage of collapsed houses.

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Published
2012-05-01
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Original Articles
Keywords:
under-five mortality, risk factors, Bayesian geostatistical model, earthquake, geographical information systems, People’s Republic of China.
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How to Cite
Hu, Y., Wang, J.-F., Li, X.-H., Ren, D., Mu, D.-H., Wang, Y.-P., Wen, C.-M., Zhu, J., & Liang, J. (2012). Application of Bayesian geostatistical modeling for the assessment of risk for child mortality during the 2008 earthquake in Wenchuan, People’s Republic of China. Geospatial Health, 6(2), 247-255. https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2012.142