A geographical information system-based web model of arbovirus transmission risk in the continental United States of America

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Sarah K. Konrad *
Li Zou
Scott N. Miller
(*) Corresponding Author:
Sarah K. Konrad | skonrad@uwyo.edu

Abstract

A degree-day (DD) model of West Nile virus capable of forecasting real-time transmission risk in the continental United States of America up to one week in advance using a 50-km grid is available online at https://sites. google.com/site/arbovirusmap/. Daily averages of historical risk based on temperatures for 1994-2003 are available at 10- km resolution. Transmission risk maps can be downloaded from 2010 to the present. The model can be adapted to work with any arbovirus for which the temperature-related parameters are known, e.g. Rift Valley fever virus. To more effectively assess virus establishment and transmission, the model incorporates “compound risk” maps and forecasts, which includes livestock density as a parameter.

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